I've stated before that I do not think we should make a distinction between real and virtual, or online and offline lives. It's all the same, even more so for a younger generation.
"I find very compelling the idea that we [are] beginning to see a generation that has not grown up with the idea of the internet as a separate "cyberspace", but instead experiences it as an aspect of the environment in which they live; another channel alongside "real space", only with different characteristics." The internet has invaded our social space to a point that we can no longer tell the difference between those relationships it infects and those it does not. The six degrees that used to separate us, for instance, has dropped to 4.6 thanks to digital technology. We no longer use terms like "pen pal" or "acquaintance," instead just calling everyone a "friend" whether we talk to them daily in person or monthly over instant messenger."
dinsdag 24 januari 2006
Echt online
Ik heb al eens eerder gezegd dat ik niet denk dat we een onderscheid moeten maken tussen echt en virtueel, of online en offline 'leven'. Het is allemaal hetzelfde, en dat geldt des te meer voor jongere generaties.
"I find very compelling the idea that we [are] beginning to see a generation that has not grown up with the idea of the internet as a separate "cyberspace", but instead experiences it as an aspect of the environment in which they live; another channel alongside "real space", only with different characteristics." The internet has invaded our social space to a point that we can no longer tell the difference between those relationships it infects and those it does not. The six degrees that used to separate us, for instance, has dropped to 4.6 thanks to digital technology. We no longer use terms like "pen pal" or "acquaintance," instead just calling everyone a "friend" whether we talk to them daily in person or monthly over instant messenger."
"I find very compelling the idea that we [are] beginning to see a generation that has not grown up with the idea of the internet as a separate "cyberspace", but instead experiences it as an aspect of the environment in which they live; another channel alongside "real space", only with different characteristics." The internet has invaded our social space to a point that we can no longer tell the difference between those relationships it infects and those it does not. The six degrees that used to separate us, for instance, has dropped to 4.6 thanks to digital technology. We no longer use terms like "pen pal" or "acquaintance," instead just calling everyone a "friend" whether we talk to them daily in person or monthly over instant messenger."
zondag 15 januari 2006
The year of I
Joel sums up the key questions that need to be anwered before we can really take advantage of the net.
"So what can we look forward to? Well, we'll have to face a number of important challenges to ramp up, the most fundamental of which is of course Identity, and I'm concerned that immediately following is that of an even more loosely defined term that everyone has differing opinions on: Trust. These aren't new thoughts, smart people have been trying this message for years and it's still true, and it's still in need of help. How do you trust someone you only interact with digitally? What do you need to learn about them to understand who they are and form a relationship? When does the group decide versus an individual? Are there realizeable technology solutions here (standards and protocols)? Which social and behavioral patterns need to grow and adapt?"
"So what can we look forward to? Well, we'll have to face a number of important challenges to ramp up, the most fundamental of which is of course Identity, and I'm concerned that immediately following is that of an even more loosely defined term that everyone has differing opinions on: Trust. These aren't new thoughts, smart people have been trying this message for years and it's still true, and it's still in need of help. How do you trust someone you only interact with digitally? What do you need to learn about them to understand who they are and form a relationship? When does the group decide versus an individual? Are there realizeable technology solutions here (standards and protocols)? Which social and behavioral patterns need to grow and adapt?"
Het jaar van ik en wij
Joel geeft een opsomming van belangrijke vragen die beantwoord dienen te worden voordat we echt ons voordeel kunnen doen met het internet. Het lijkt allemaal hard te gaan, maar we staan in veel opzichten nog zo aan het begin...
"So what can we look forward to? Well, we'll have to face a number of important challenges to ramp up, the most fundamental of which is of course Identity, and I'm concerned that immediately following is that of an even more loosely defined term that everyone has differing opinions on: Trust. These aren't new thoughts, smart people have been trying this message for years and it's still true, and it's still in need of help. How do you trust someone you only interact with digitally? What do you need to learn about them to understand who they are and form a relationship? When does the group decide versus an individual? Are there realizeable technology solutions here (standards and protocols)? Which social and behavioral patterns need to grow and adapt?"
"So what can we look forward to? Well, we'll have to face a number of important challenges to ramp up, the most fundamental of which is of course Identity, and I'm concerned that immediately following is that of an even more loosely defined term that everyone has differing opinions on: Trust. These aren't new thoughts, smart people have been trying this message for years and it's still true, and it's still in need of help. How do you trust someone you only interact with digitally? What do you need to learn about them to understand who they are and form a relationship? When does the group decide versus an individual? Are there realizeable technology solutions here (standards and protocols)? Which social and behavioral patterns need to grow and adapt?"
Economic rationale for open source model
John Mark Walker has written a good article in which he tries to explain the economic reasons for the existence of the open source model. As opposed to a more 'idealistic' view. Also read Nicholas Carr's response and that of Matt Assay.
"I have shown how the internet has driven software prices into the dirt, created an environment conducive to open source collaboration, and provided the infrastructure for that collaboration to actually take place. I have also shown how cheap commodity software markets are necessary for open source development and how open source is not viable in less mature software markets without the necessary economy of scale. When viewing open source development from this perspective, some things become clear that perhaps were not before."
"I have shown how the internet has driven software prices into the dirt, created an environment conducive to open source collaboration, and provided the infrastructure for that collaboration to actually take place. I have also shown how cheap commodity software markets are necessary for open source development and how open source is not viable in less mature software markets without the necessary economy of scale. When viewing open source development from this perspective, some things become clear that perhaps were not before."
Economische rationale voor open source model
John Mark Walker heeft een goed artikel geschreven waarin hij uitlegt wat de economische redenen zijn voor het onstaan en bestaan van het open source model. Als 'alternatief' voor de vaak wat meer idealistische grondslagen die veelal gebruikt worden als verklaring. Lees ook Nicholas Carr's post hierover en die van Matt Assay.
"I have shown how the internet has driven software prices into the dirt, created an environment conducive to open source collaboration, and provided the infrastructure for that collaboration to actually take place. I have also shown how cheap commodity software markets are necessary for open source development and how open source is not viable in less mature software markets without the necessary economy of scale. When viewing open source development from this perspective, some things become clear that perhaps were not before."
"I have shown how the internet has driven software prices into the dirt, created an environment conducive to open source collaboration, and provided the infrastructure for that collaboration to actually take place. I have also shown how cheap commodity software markets are necessary for open source development and how open source is not viable in less mature software markets without the necessary economy of scale. When viewing open source development from this perspective, some things become clear that perhaps were not before."
woensdag 11 januari 2006
Google: the bear case
Some time ago I advised you to sell (or not buy) Google shares. I've had many discussions recently on this topic with both experts and non-experts. Henry Blodget describes the 'Bear Case' and I have to agree with him. The questions is not if, but when?
"The first thing that could happen is that, for a variety of reasons, AdWords revenue growth could slow. The reasons could include market saturation (one of these days, Google will have picked all the low-hanging search fruit) and/or a flattening of keyword price increases (recent anecdotal evidence such as FTD suggests that this is already happening in some categories). Both market saturation and price pressure will occur naturally someday, as they do with every business. The only question is when. If/when this slowdown occurs, what will happen? The stock's multiple will compress. How much? At $460, Google is valued at about $140 billion, or approximately 50X-70X a 2006 free cash flow estimate of $2-$3 billion. If grows slows gradually, this multiple will probably shrink to 30X-40X. If it slows precipitously, the multiple will probably shrink to 20X-30X. Natural forces, in other words, should eventually compress Google's FCF multiple by 20%-60%. (I am comfortable predicting that this will happen. Again, the only question is when.)"
"The first thing that could happen is that, for a variety of reasons, AdWords revenue growth could slow. The reasons could include market saturation (one of these days, Google will have picked all the low-hanging search fruit) and/or a flattening of keyword price increases (recent anecdotal evidence such as FTD suggests that this is already happening in some categories). Both market saturation and price pressure will occur naturally someday, as they do with every business. The only question is when. If/when this slowdown occurs, what will happen? The stock's multiple will compress. How much? At $460, Google is valued at about $140 billion, or approximately 50X-70X a 2006 free cash flow estimate of $2-$3 billion. If grows slows gradually, this multiple will probably shrink to 30X-40X. If it slows precipitously, the multiple will probably shrink to 20X-30X. Natural forces, in other words, should eventually compress Google's FCF multiple by 20%-60%. (I am comfortable predicting that this will happen. Again, the only question is when.)"
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