Een tijdje terug adviseerde ik al om Google aandelen te verkopen (of in ieder geval niet te kopen). De afgelopen tijd heb ik hier veel discussies over gehad, zowel met experts als niet-experts. Henry Blodget beschrijft de 'Bear Case' en ik ben het grotendeels met hem eens. De vraag is niet of, maar wanneer?
"The first thing that could happen is that, for a variety of reasons, AdWords revenue growth could slow. The reasons could include market saturation (one of these days, Google will have picked all the low-hanging search fruit) and/or a flattening of keyword price increases (recent anecdotal evidence such as FTD suggests that this is already happening in some categories). Both market saturation and price pressure will occur naturally someday, as they do with every business. The only question is when. If/when this slowdown occurs, what will happen? The stock's multiple will compress. How much? At $460, Google is valued at about $140 billion, or approximately 50X-70X a 2006 free cash flow estimate of $2-$3 billion. If grows slows gradually, this multiple will probably shrink to 30X-40X. If it slows precipitously, the multiple will probably shrink to 20X-30X. Natural forces, in other words, should eventually compress Google's FCF multiple by 20%-60%. (I am comfortable predicting that this will happen. Again, the only question is when.)"
woensdag 11 januari 2006
dinsdag 10 januari 2006
MySpace is a real place
Lot's of interesting quotes in this USA TODAY article on MySpace. You should read it if you'd like to get a feel for how teens are living their lives online.
"For those who didn't grow up with the Internet, it might seem strange to think of a mere website as an actual place. But for people like Edstrom and Michael Edwards, a high school senior from San Diego who can't remember when there was no Internet, cyberspace is a real place, even if the entry gates come in the form of a PC."
"For those who didn't grow up with the Internet, it might seem strange to think of a mere website as an actual place. But for people like Edstrom and Michael Edwards, a high school senior from San Diego who can't remember when there was no Internet, cyberspace is a real place, even if the entry gates come in the form of a PC."
The Madness of Crowds
Nice example of a typical Web 2.0 'bug'.
"This is a classic Web 2.0 problem: it's hard to aggregate the wisdom of the crowd without aggregating their madness as well. In this case, the situation was amplified because it wasn't just any site that Steve was accused of ripping off, it was the very site that the community belonged to and identified with."
"This is a classic Web 2.0 problem: it's hard to aggregate the wisdom of the crowd without aggregating their madness as well. In this case, the situation was amplified because it wasn't just any site that Steve was accused of ripping off, it was the very site that the community belonged to and identified with."
MySpace is een echte plek
Veel interessante quotes in dit USA TODAY artikel over MySpace. Zeker lezen wanneer je een beter gevoel wilt krijgen over hoe tieners hun online bestaan vormgeven.
"For those who didn't grow up with the Internet, it might seem strange to think of a mere website as an actual place. But for people like Edstrom and Michael Edwards, a high school senior from San Diego who can't remember when there was no Internet, cyberspace is a real place, even if the entry gates come in the form of a PC."
"For those who didn't grow up with the Internet, it might seem strange to think of a mere website as an actual place. But for people like Edstrom and Michael Edwards, a high school senior from San Diego who can't remember when there was no Internet, cyberspace is a real place, even if the entry gates come in the form of a PC."
"The Madness of Crowds"
Mooi voorbeeld van hoe "Web 2.0" nog maar in de kinderschoenen staat.
"This is a classic Web 2.0 problem: it's hard to aggregate the wisdom of the crowd without aggregating their madness as well. In this case, the situation was amplified because it wasn't just any site that Steve was accused of ripping off, it was the very site that the community belonged to and identified with."
"This is a classic Web 2.0 problem: it's hard to aggregate the wisdom of the crowd without aggregating their madness as well. In this case, the situation was amplified because it wasn't just any site that Steve was accused of ripping off, it was the very site that the community belonged to and identified with."
maandag 9 januari 2006
First day with my Segway
Last week I received a Segway from Igo Rentals. One day of touring through Amsterdam was interesting. Within 30 minutes at least 15 pictures were taken, some grandpa told his granddaughter I was just a lazy guy, "he, it's a rollator for 30-somethings" was funny to hear, and cars slow down when they see you.Anyway, I'll report some more findings later when I've had the chance to use it a bit more. But I'm glad that, after reading about IT & Ginger for the first time exactly 5 years ago, I finally had the chance to experience what Dean Kamen meant when he said that the Segway "will be to the car what the car was to the horse and buggy."
Eerste dagje Segway
Net als Eduard kreeg ik vorige week ook een Segway van Igo Rentals. Een dagje rondrijden in Amsterdam is apart. Ik denk dat ik in een half uur tijd zeker 15 keer op de foto werd gezet, een opa vertelde z'n kleindochter dat ik lui was, de opmerking "he, een rollator voor dertigers" was erg grappig, en auto's gaan langzamer rijden als ze je zien.Ik zal later nog eens uitgebreider verslag doen van mijn ervaringen wanneer ik 'm wat meer gebruikt heb, maar ik ben blij dat ik nu, na exact 5 jaar geleden voor het eerst over IT & Ginger gelezen te hebben, eindelijk zelf eens heb kunnen ervaren wat Dean Kamen bedoelde toen hij zei dat de Segway "will be to the car what the car was to the horse and buggy."
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