woensdag 21 december 2005

Downfall of paid-listing websites

Very interesting analysis from Bill Burnham on the impact Google Base, and future similar services, will have on vertical businesses like monster.com, ebay.com, match.com, and basically any other paid-listing website. These services use a "Walled Garden" approach, a model that will soon be made obsolete because of the open character of the web, and the way it can be indexed, structured and searched. With Google Base as a potential king of vertical search.

"Google base is essentially the world’s largest XML database. If you take the time to read through the XML schema you will see that Google has essentially already built all of the components that it needs to enter the vertical search space in a big way; all it needs to do now is refine a few algorithms and flip a switch. If and when it does so, it will undoubtedly not only the have the largest collection of listings in all major categories overnight but will also have arguably the best distribution channel for those listings on the Internet. This is not good news if you are currently charging to either to display or to access similar listings (or if you are a vertical search start-up)."

De ondergang van betaalde advertentie websites

Zeer interessante analyse van Bill Burnham over de impact die Google Base, en vergelijkbare diensten, zal hebben op de business van verticaal georienteerde websites als monster.com, ebay.com, match.com, maar eigenlijk op elke website waar je moet betalen om te kunnen 'adverteren'. Dit soort diensten hebben een zogenaamd "Walled Garden" model. Een model dat snel achterhaald zal worden als gevolg van de openheid, indexeer- en structuureerbaarheid en doorzoekbaarheid van het internet. Met Google Base als een voorbeeld van een dienst die de koning van het 'verticale zoeken' zou kunnen worden.

"Google base is essentially the world’s largest XML database. If you take the time to read through the XML schema you will see that Google has essentially already built all of the components that it needs to enter the vertical search space in a big way; all it needs to do now is refine a few algorithms and flip a switch. If and when it does so, it will undoubtedly not only the have the largest collection of listings in all major categories overnight but will also have arguably the best distribution channel for those listings on the Internet. This is not good news if you are currently charging to either to display or to access similar listings (or if you are a vertical search start-up)."

dinsdag 20 december 2005

1 billion internet users

These statistics and Jakob Nielsen's analysis say it all.

"According to Morgan Stanley estimates, 36% of Internet users are now in Asia and 24% are in Europe. Only 23% of users are in North America, where it all started in 1969 when two computers -- one in Los Angeles, the other in Palo Alto -- were networked together."

1 miljard internet gebruikers

De cijfers en Jakob Nielsen's analyse spreken voor zich.

"According to Morgan Stanley estimates, 36% of Internet users are now in Asia and 24% are in Europe. Only 23% of users are in North America, where it all started in 1969 when two computers -- one in Los Angeles, the other in Palo Alto -- were networked together."

maandag 19 december 2005

The probabilistic age

Chris Anderson has a post on a topic I find myself thinking about a lot lately. He calls it the probabilistic age.

"When professionals--editors, academics, journalists--are running the show, we at least know that it's someone's job to look out for such things as accuracy. But now we're depending more and more on systems where nobody's in charge; the intelligence is simply emergent. These probabilistic systems aren't perfect, but they are statistically optimized to excel over time and large numbers. They're designed to scale, and to improve with size. And a little slop at the microscale is the price of such efficiency at the macroscale."

In the comments Chris makes a very important remark on Wikipedia, saying it is a mix of authority and statistics that make it work. I think that mix is something we will see happening everywhere in order to make sure that certain problems are fixed...

"In the popular entries with many eyes watching, Wikipedia becomes closer to the statistical average of the views of the participants, weighted by such factors the authority of each as defined by the others (frequent contributors to any entry tend to win any vote-offs). Studies have shown that for such entries, the mean time to repair vandalism of the sort you describe is measured in minutes. As Wikipeida grows that rapid self-repairing property will spread to more entries."

Statistieken en authoriteit

Chris Anderson heeft een stuk geschreven over een onderwerp dat mij de laatste tijd ook erg bezig houdt. Hij noemt het "the probabilistic age".

"When professionals--editors, academics, journalists--are running the show, we at least know that it's someone's job to look out for such things as accuracy. But now we're depending more and more on systems where nobody's in charge; the intelligence is simply emergent. These probabilistic systems aren't perfect, but they are statistically optimized to excel over time and large numbers. They're designed to scale, and to improve with size. And a little slop at the microscale is the price of such efficiency at the macroscale."

In de reacties doet Chris nog een belangrijke toevoeging wanneer hij over Wikipedia zegt dat het een mix van statistieken en authoriteit is die deze dienst goed laat werken. En dat is iets wat we denk ik op heel veel plekken zullen gaan terug zien om ervoor te zorgen dat sommige problemen snel verdwijnen...

"In the popular entries with many eyes watching, Wikipedia becomes closer to the statistical average of the views of the participants, weighted by such factors the authority of each as defined by the others (frequent contributors to any entry tend to win any vote-offs). Studies have shown that for such entries, the mean time to repair vandalism of the sort you describe is measured in minutes. As Wikipeida grows that rapid self-repairing property will spread to more entries."

zaterdag 17 december 2005

Guilt-free easy money

Tim Harford raises a lot of good questions on the Xbox 360 shortage.

"Microsoft has got it wrong, too, but they have missed out on a far more obvious opportunity. Why didn't they sell their initial supply of Xbox consoles, packaged as a "limited edition," using online auctions? All the while they would promise $300 consoles as soon as stocks were available. Since at an auction the price is set by the buyers, not the seller, Microsoft could have made a killing, absolutely guilt-free, and created no more annoyed, empty-handed customers than they have with their current strategy."

Tekort = prijs te laag

Tim Harford stelt een aantal terechte vragen over de Xbox 360 tekorten.

"Microsoft has got it wrong, too, but they have missed out on a far more obvious opportunity. Why didn't they sell their initial supply of Xbox consoles, packaged as a "limited edition," using online auctions? All the while they would promise $300 consoles as soon as stocks were available. Since at an auction the price is set by the buyers, not the seller, Microsoft could have made a killing, absolutely guilt-free, and created no more annoyed, empty-handed customers than they have with their current strategy."

maandag 12 december 2005

Gepatenteerde McDownload's?

Op Marketingfacts krijg ik net het advies om het artikel in FEM over de "Hype 2.0" niet te lezen. Aangezien het niet online staat zou ik dat zowieso al niet doen, maar na het lezen van dit bericht op de FEM Business Weblog weet ik zeker dat ik weinig mis.

"Disney heeft een patentaanvraag ingediend voor het aanbieden van downloads als klantenlokkertje in restaurants. Eventueel in combinatie met een draagbare mediaspeler, die de films via een wifi-verbinding binnenhaalt. Goed plan. Zo gaan die wifi-hotspots waar McDonald's ook in Nederland mee is uitgerust, eindelijk eens wat data verstoken."

Een goed plan...?!?! Een patent voor het aanbieden van downloads als klantenlokkertje in restaurants? Dat er belasting geld besteed moet worden om z'n patentaanvraag uberhaupt in behandeling te nemen is al te absurd voor woorden.

zaterdag 10 december 2005

Sell Google shares

Besides the question of whether Google's strategy and assets have more potential than for instance Yahoo!'s (I don't think so), there are some other reasons why Google is being overvalued on the stock exchange. Nicholas Carr sums it up after an interesting remark made by Bill Gates. My conclusion would be: sell Google shares.

"The online ad market is going to become more efficient. Much of the profit that now goes to the operators of the ad-serving technology will be redistributed. Some will go to the advertisers, in the form of lower rates, and some will go to the publishers, in the form of higher commissions. And if Gates is serious - and I'm betting he is - some will go to the internet users themselves, whose clicks, after all, make the whole system work. In the battle for eyeballs, bribery can be a powerful weapon."

The more fundamental reason for the fact that the current situation is not sustainable is that it won't take long before we understand that our individual 'attention' has worth and that we are increasingly able to exploit it.

Google aandelen verkopen

Los van de vraag of de strategie en assets van Google echt daadwerkelijk beter zijn dan die van bijvoorbeeld Yahoo! (ik denk van niet), zijn er nog een aantal redenen waarom Google zwaar overgewaardeerd wordt (op de beurs). Nicholas Carr vat e.e.a. samen naar aanleiding van een opmerking van Bill Gates. Mijn conclusie zou zijn: verkopen die aandelen.

"The online ad market is going to become more efficient. Much of the profit that now goes to the operators of the ad-serving technology will be redistributed. Some will go to the advertisers, in the form of lower rates, and some will go to the publishers, in the form of higher commissions. And if Gates is serious - and I'm betting he is - some will go to the internet users themselves, whose clicks, after all, make the whole system work. In the battle for eyeballs, bribery can be a powerful weapon."

De fundamentele reden waarom de huidige situatie onhoudbaar zal blijken te zijn is dat het niet lang zal duren voordat wij doorhebben dat onze individuele 'aandacht' geld waard is en steeds beter geƫxploiteerd kan worden.

Iedereeen praat met iedereen

Vaak wanneer mensen het hebben over weblogs wordt geclaimed dat er eigenlijk niets nieuws onder de zon is. "10 jaar geleden had ik ook al een pagina op het web" zeggen ze dan. Maar wat weblogs fundamenteel anders maakt is syndicatie. Syndicatie zorgt ervoor dat het statische web veranderd in een levend web. Lees deze twee (1, 2) artikelen in het Linux Journal geschreven door Doc Searls om dit alles beter te bergijpen.

"Blogging predated syndication, but it was syndication that began to give form to the live Web. Syndication provided a way for people, and the tools they use, to pay attention (through subscription) to feeds from syndicated sources. At first these sources were blogs and publications, but later they came to include searches for topics of conversation, including the names of authors, URLs and permalinks for particular blog posts or news stories. Many of those sources were not the blogs themselves, but search engines reporting the results of keyword and URL searches."

Everyone is talking to everyone

Often when people speak about blogs, they miss the point when claiming it's nothing new. "I had a personal homepage 10 years ago" is what they say. But what makes blogging different is syndication. Syndication has turned the static web into a live web. Read these two (1, 2) articles in Linux Journal by Doc Searls in order to better understand this.

"Blogging predated syndication, but it was syndication that began to give form to the live Web. Syndication provided a way for people, and the tools they use, to pay attention (through subscription) to feeds from syndicated sources. At first these sources were blogs and publications, but later they came to include searches for topics of conversation, including the names of authors, URLs and permalinks for particular blog posts or news stories. Many of those sources were not the blogs themselves, but search engines reporting the results of keyword and URL searches."

donderdag 8 december 2005

Social search

Interesting new social search service from Yahoo! that allows people to ask and answers questions in a community environment. Contextual advertising could prove to be an interesting revenue model for both Yahoo! and answering users.... And who knows, it might even solve other problems as well.

"Yahoo today rolled out a very Web 2,0-ey and potentially powerful new beta product, Yahoo Answers, that helps you connect with other users who can answer your questions. You can ask a question; answer a question; or browse already-answered questions. There are rating, participation points and ratting systems to help keep the community helpful and useful. If it works, it will provide a powerful catalog of useful user-generated content in such advertiser-attractive areas as consumer electronics, stay-at-home moms, health, etc. Time, as they say in Cliche Corner, will tell if Yahoo can control the scammers, spammers and marketers from taking over the joint."

Sociale zoekdienst

Interessante nieuwe sociale zoekdienst van Yahoo! welke mensen in staat stelt om vragen te stellen en te beantwoorden in een community omgeving. Contextueel relevante advertenties zouden wel eens een prima inkomstenmodel kunnen worden voor deze dienst, voor Yahoo!, maar ook voor de antwoordende gebruikers... En wie weet, andere problemen zouden er tegelijkertijd wel eens door opgelost kunnen worden.

"Yahoo today rolled out a very Web 2,0-ey and potentially powerful new beta product, Yahoo Answers, that helps you connect with other users who can answer your questions. You can ask a question; answer a question; or browse already-answered questions. There are rating, participation points and ratting systems to help keep the community helpful and useful. If it works, it will provide a powerful catalog of useful user-generated content in such advertiser-attractive areas as consumer electronics, stay-at-home moms, health, etc. Time, as they say in Cliche Corner, will tell if Yahoo can control the scammers, spammers and marketers from taking over the joint."

dinsdag 6 december 2005

Marc Canter

We just had another Marc Canter show at Les Blogs 2.0. I'm not going to repeat or analyze what he said, because I've blogged about it before when he wrote an article, "Breaking the web wide open", a short while ago. It is a must read for anyone interested in Web 2.0, Les Blogs 2.0, Identity 2.0 etc, etc. I just noticed I'll be speaking at a conference with him next year, let's see if I can keep him awake;-)

"Today's incumbents will have to adapt to the new openness of the Web 2.0. If they stick to their proprietary standards, code, and content, they'll become the new walled gardens—places users visit briefly to retrieve data and content from enclosed data silos, but not where users "live." The incumbents' revenue models will have to change. Instead of "owning" their users, users will know they own themselves, and will expect a return on their valuable identity and attention. Instead of being locked into incompatible media formats, users will expect easy access to digital content across many platforms."

Marc Canter

We hebben net weer een Marc Canter show gehad bij Les Blogs 2.0. Ik ga niet herhalen of analyseren wat hij net allemaal zei aangezien ik daar eerder een bericht over geplaatst heb toen zijn artikel, "Breaking the web wide open", een tijdje terug verscheen. Een 'must read' voor iedereen geinteresseerd in Web 2.0, Les Blogs 2.0, Identity 2.0 etc, etc. Ik kwam er net ook achter dat ik samen met hem zal spreken op een congres volgend jaar, benieuwd of ik hem wel wakker kan houden;-)

"Today's incumbents will have to adapt to the new openness of the Web 2.0. If they stick to their proprietary standards, code, and content, they'll become the new walled gardens—places users visit briefly to retrieve data and content from enclosed data silos, but not where users "live." The incumbents' revenue models will have to change. Instead of "owning" their users, users will know they own themselves, and will expect a return on their valuable identity and attention. Instead of being locked into incompatible media formats, users will expect easy access to digital content across many platforms."

Relevance of the wrong

Mena Trott jus gave an opening speech at the second day of the Les Blogs conference in Paris that ignited a heated discussion. She mentioned a case where famous blogger (and Yahoo! employee) Jeremy Zawodny wrote a post on a PR firm, Krause Taylor Associates. He accusses them of spamming him, but deep down in the comments he sort of admits being wrong about that. The problem for Krause Taylor Associates is not over however. If you Google them, hit number 2 is about the 'spam-incident'. The result is they're tainted because Google says this is the second most relevant piece of information publicly available on the web about Krause Taylor Associates. Most people Googling the firm will not read all the way down to Jeremy's 'apology' however.

Most present at Les Blogs agree this is a problem. But how do we solve this? Try to influence blogger behavior? Not likely to work well, but most speakers seem to be looking for a 'cultural' solution. But wouldn't it be great if there was a solution (facilitated by technology) that allows us, as a collective, to decrease the relevance of something that is wrong, assuming the wrong is undisputed by the ones who should/could know? Some sort of reputation management system may be? Should/could search engines present search results differently?

Relevantie van het verkeerde

Mena Trott hield net de openingsspeech op de tweede dag van de Les Blogs conferentie in Parijs en dit resulteerde in een verhitte discussie. Ze sprak over een geval waarbij de bekende blogger (en Yahoo! werknemer), Jeremy Zawodny, een bericht plaatste over een PR bureau, Krause Taylor Associates. Hij beschuldigt hun ervan hem te spammen, maar helemaal beneden in de reacties geeft hij toe het aan het verkeerde eind te hebben. Het probleem voor Krause Taylor Associates is echter niet over. Wanneer je ze Googled, dan is resultaat nummer 2 dit 'spam-incident'. Het gevolg is dat dit PR bureau duidelijk beschadigt is aangezien Google zegt dat dit bericht van Jeremy het op een na relevantste stukje informatie is op het publieke web. En aangezien de meeste mensen niet alle comments zullen gaan lezen....

De meeste mensen aanwezig bij Les Blogs zijn het er over eens dat dit een probleem is. Maar hoe kunnen we dit oplossen? Het gedrag van bloggers beinvloeden? Niet erg waarschijnlijk dat dit gaat helpen, maar de meeste sprekers denken wel in die richting. Zou het echter niet mooi zijn wanneer er een (door technologie gefaciliteerde) oplossing is welke ons, als collectief, in staat stelt om de relevantie van iets dat verkeerd is omlaag te brengen? Ervan uitgaande dat deze mening gedeeld wordt door de mensen die het kunnen/moeten weten? Een soort van reputatiemanagement systeem bijvoorbeeld? Zouden zoekmachines hun resultaten vervolgens misschien anders moeten/kunnen presenteren?

zondag 4 december 2005

Innovation according to Etsy

Sometimes you just need to forget about how and why things work the way they've always worked. Innovation might be the result, and Etsy is a nice example. A quote from the article (Yuri, do you have a link to the full article?):

"What is interesting about Etsy is the way Robert Kalin and his three co-founders have introduced some new ideas to the way shoppers can look for things. Don't know what you're looking for exactly, but know what color you're after? Move your mouse over a "Shop by Color" grid and see dozens of bubbles of color float under the cursor. Click on a color you like and small boxes will appear, each one a different product that matches your chosen color. Click on the box you like the look of and details of the product will pop up including price tag, the retailer in question, and a link where you can get more information. It isn't a revolution, but it's different -- and an improvement on bricks and mortar. Ever tried saying to a shop assistant "I don't know exactly what I'm looking for, but please line up all the products that are this shade of turquoise?" Expect a blank look at best, a surly brushoff, or a "We're closing now. Bye!"

Innovatie volgens Etsy

Soms moet je gewoon maar even vergeten hoe het komt dat sommige dingen werken zoals ze werken omdat ze altijd al zo gewerkt hebben... Innovatie kan het resultaat zijn, en Etsy is een mooi voorbeeld. (Yuri, heb je een link naar het hele artikel?)

"What is interesting about Etsy is the way Robert Kalin and his three co-founders have introduced some new ideas to the way shoppers can look for things. Don't know what you're looking for exactly, but know what color you're after? Move your mouse over a "Shop by Color" grid and see dozens of bubbles of color float under the cursor. Click on a color you like and small boxes will appear, each one a different product that matches your chosen color. Click on the box you like the look of and details of the product will pop up including price tag, the retailer in question, and a link where you can get more information. It isn't a revolution, but it's different -- and an improvement on bricks and mortar. Ever tried saying to a shop assistant "I don't know exactly what I'm looking for, but please line up all the products that are this shade of turquoise?" Expect a blank look at best, a surly brushoff, or a "We're closing now. Bye!"

zaterdag 3 december 2005

The MySpace generation

Nice article in BusinessWeek on the success of social networks like MySpace. A nice startingpoint for marketeers that do not really understand what's happening....

"Although networks are still in their infancy, experts think they're already creating new forms of social behavior that blur the distinctions between online and real-world interactions. In fact, today's young generation largely ignores the difference. Most adults see the Web as a supplement to their daily lives. They tap into information, buy books or send flowers, exchange apartments, or link up with others who share passions for dogs, say, or opera. But for the most part, their social lives remain rooted in the traditional phone call and face-to-face interaction."

De MySpace generatie

Aardig artikel in BusinessWeek over het succes van social networks als MySpace. Voor marketeers die weinig begrijpen van deze ontwikkeling is het een mooi startpunt.

"Although networks are still in their infancy, experts think they're already creating new forms of social behavior that blur the distinctions between online and real-world interactions. In fact, today's young generation largely ignores the difference. Most adults see the Web as a supplement to their daily lives. They tap into information, buy books or send flowers, exchange apartments, or link up with others who share passions for dogs, say, or opera. But for the most part, their social lives remain rooted in the traditional phone call and face-to-face interaction."